El-Rufai’s Paul Biya Warning: Could Nigeria Be Slipping Towards Entrenched Power?

By Joseph Iyaji | Akahi News

A Provocative Comparison Sparks Debate

Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has ignited a storm of political debate after drawing a stark comparison between Nigeria’s current political trajectory and Cameroon’s decades-long experience under President Paul Biya. Speaking during a solidarity visit by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, El-Rufai alleged that unless Nigerians act decisively in the 2027 general election, President Bola Tinubu could emulate Biya’s model of prolonged rule.

According to El-Rufai, the centralisation of power under the current administration presents a dangerous precedent, warning that such trends could pave the way for democratic backsliding if left unchecked.

Power Centralisation and Democratic Concerns

In his remarks, El-Rufai reportedly criticised what he described as an “increasing concentration of power at the centre” under the Tinubu administration. He claimed that this shift runs contrary to the principles of federalism that Nigeria has long professed to uphold.

“This government is trying to centralise everything instead of devolving powers to the lower levels,” El-Rufai alleged, stressing that democracy risks losing its core spirit if political power continues to accumulate in the executive branch.

Observers note that El-Rufai’s warning reflects wider concerns among opposition figures and civil society groups who have repeatedly called for reforms to strengthen local governance and protect constitutional safeguards.

The Paul Biya Parallel: A Cautionary Tale

By invoking Paul Biya — Cameroon’s president since 1982 — El-Rufai suggested that prolonged incumbency often begins with seemingly minor erosions of democratic norms. According to reports, he warned that failure to unite against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027 could lead to a situation where Tinubu, like Biya, entrenches himself in power for decades.

Analysts, however, believe Nigeria’s democratic context differs significantly from Cameroon’s. While Cameroon has faced decades of authoritarian consolidation, Nigeria maintains competitive elections, a vocal civil society, and constitutional term limits. Yet, El-Rufai’s rhetoric appears aimed at highlighting early warning signs rather than claiming that such an outcome is inevitable.

Critics Warn Against Rhetorical Overreach

Some political commentators argue that comparing Nigeria’s current political climate to Cameroon under Biya risks oversimplification.

“While there are legitimate concerns about power centralisation, Nigeria still possesses strong institutional checks — from the judiciary to civil society watchdogs — that could limit any slide toward authoritarianism,” one analyst told Akahi News.

Nevertheless, El-Rufai’s comments resonate with growing frustrations over perceived political intolerance and allegations of selective suppression of dissent. His claims that the current administration exhibits traits “worse than any military regime” have further fuelled heated public discourse.

What Lies Ahead for 2027?

The former governor’s remarks also placed a moral responsibility on opposition figures, particularly Atiku Abubakar, to rally democratic forces ahead of 2027.

“You are our leader and you have experience in democratic governance,” El-Rufai told Atiku, urging him to help guide Nigeria through what he called a period of “full-fledged oppression.”

Political observers believe the coming months will determine whether El-Rufai’s warning sparks meaningful democratic reforms or remains a rhetorical flashpoint in Nigeria’s heated political landscape.

Final Thoughts

El-Rufai’s comparison to Paul Biya serves as both a political critique and a cautionary tale. While critics question the accuracy of equating Nigeria’s present with Cameroon’s authoritarian past, the broader message about safeguarding democratic norms remains relevant.

As Nigeria edges towards the 2027 elections, the real test will be whether institutions, political actors, and voters ensure that democratic principles prevail over centralisation and incumbency advantage.

Akahi News http://www.akahinews.org