False Coup, Real Lessons: Gigo’s Powerful Argument on Embalo, ECOWAS and Africa’s Leadership Crisis
The recent political turmoil in Guinea-Bissau has continued to trigger intense debate across West Africa and beyond. What initially appeared to be a dramatic coup attempt has now evolved into a deeper conversation about leadership fear, institutional weaknesses, regional responsibility, and the dangerous power of words.
In a wide-ranging and reflective argument, activist and author Jarga Kebba Gigo offered a critical – yet largely solution-driven – interpretation of events surrounding former President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and the role of both the Bissau military and regional bodies such as ECOWAS and the African Union.
Akahi News gathered that Gigo’s position is not one of blind condemnation, but a call for urgent learning, renewed protocols, and structured protection mechanisms to prevent similar crises across Africa.
Embalo’s Fear and the Question of a “False Coup”
According to Gigo, former President Embalo bears primary responsibility for what appears to be a self-declared and misleading “coup” narrative. Unlike traditional military takeovers seen in Guinea-Bissau’s troubled past, Embalo himself was reportedly the one who announced that a coup was underway — a detail that, in hindsight, raised suspicion.
Akahi News learnt that Gigo considers Embalo’s action not just irrational, but revealing of a deeper issue: fear. A “scared powerful person,” he argued, can become more dangerous than any armed group.
While Gigo admits the possibility of mistaken assumptions — likening the uncertainty to the disputed Al Gore–Bush election in the United States — his personal assessment leans toward the belief that Embalo lost the election and panicked at the prospect of prosecution, imprisonment, or even assassination.
However, Gigo does not ignore the emotional weight of such fear. Instead, he insists that Africa must design protocols that reduce the likelihood of desperate, destabilising decisions by outgoing leaders.
ECOWAS and AU: Missed Opportunities for Structural Protection
A critical part of Gigo’s argument focuses not just on individuals, but on systems. He believes that ECOWAS and the African Union failed to put in place robust training and safety protocols for both incoming and outgoing leaders.
Akahi News gathered that one of his most compelling proposals is that all former presidents should be offered a guaranteed, escorted exit route under ECOWAS or AU protection. This, he argues, would eliminate the temptation to cling to power or fabricate chaos.
At the same time, such leaders must not enjoy total immunity.
Under this system:
- They can be safely relocated.
- They can still face prosecution – but in an ECOWAS or AU-level court.
- A panel of judges from different countries reduces the risk of bias or revenge trials.
This regional judicial approach, Gigo notes, is far more balanced than relying on national courts that may be compromised by emotion, politics, or tribal allegiance.
The Gambia, Jammeh and the Power of Dangerous Words
To strengthen his argument, Gigo drawn parallels to The Gambia’s 2016–2017 electoral crisis involving Yahya Jammeh and current President Adama Barrow.
He recalls how Barrow — before even being sworn in — publicly announced that The Gambia would rejoin the International Criminal Court (ICC). According to Gigo, this was interpreted as an implicit threat against Jammeh, giving the former strongman a psychological reason to resist stepping down.
Akahi News learnt that Gigo does not justify Jammeh’s actions, but places partial responsibility on careless rhetoric from political actors and a failure of ECOWAS to pre-empt or de-escalate the tension.
He argues that opposition leaders must also be trained to measure their words carefully — because language can trigger war as much as weapons.
Protecting Opposition Figures Without Encouraging Impunity
Another important proposed reform centres on the safety of opposition leaders, particularly those receiving a significant percentage of votes.
Gigo suggested that if a candidate secures up to five percent or more of votes, they should be placed under international protection during election periods. Charges against them, if necessary, should be addressed only by ECOWAS or AU courts to prevent unrest and politically motivated arrests.
Akahi News gathered that this idea is not about shielding criminals, but about preventing violent backlash and preserving democratic stability.
He cited examples ranging from Ousainou Darboe’s refuge-seeking in The Gambia to the extreme cases in Brazil and the United States, drawing clear lines between reckless speech, electoral denial, and actionable plots.
A Call for a Landmark African Leadership Book
Beyond critique, Gigo also offered a visionary proposal: the creation of a comprehensive book analysing Africa’s recent political crises. The proposed title would reflect “The Dangerous Words and Actions by Leaders” – and the aim would be to educate:
- Aspiring politicians
- Students of political science
- New presidents and opposition leaders
- Military leaders and diplomats
He expressed interest in working alongside respected figures like former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, as well as journalists, scholars, and witnesses from across the continent.
Akahi News gathered that the central aim is not to embarrass living or former leaders, but to extract lessons that will protect future generations.
Military Responsibility and Spiritual Warning
While placing secondary blame on the Bissau military, Gigo maintained that disciplined soldiers should have responded differently. Instead of detaining opposition figures or following false alarms, they could have:
- Ensured national calm
- Released verified election results
- Safely escorted Embalo out
- Protected democratic transition
He added a spiritual caution, noting that lies and cruelty – particularly at leadership levels – do not go unnoticed before God.
From Shame to Wisdom
In Gigo’s final reflection, Embalo had a historic opportunity. He could have become a symbol of peaceful transition and returned stronger politically — as seen in cases like Trump, Buhari, or Lula da Silva.
Instead, his name risks being associated with Africa’s first widely recognised false coup, born not of ambition, but fear.
Yet, as Gigo insisted — the ultimate aim is not shame.
It is learning.
Akahi News learnt that his final message to Africa is both simple and profound: when leadership learns, nations live.
Peruse Gigo’s Full Message Below
The Disappointment by Embalo and Bissau’s military is Still a Hard Learning Opportunity.
Whereas Ex-president Embalo is primarily to blame for what evidently seems as a ‘false coup’, the Bissau’s military bears secondary blame and even Ecowas to AU for not having certain ‘training’+ for new presidents and opposition leaders about special circumstances. Well, since I am more about suggestions or learning, not blame or criticisms, then the unavoidable descriptions that may seem like blame will come last or in the middle. As ex-president Jonathan Goodluck rightly explained : This was not a coup as we know about coups. Mr. Goodluck rightly demanded the release of the election results and freeing of the opposition leader; he even called for new Ecowas protocols but did not explain the details or suggestions. A scared powerful animal is dangerous, but a scared powerful human being can be a lot more dangerous. Embalo was rightly or unnecessarily scared, but which Ecowas or AU protocol (measures) can help avoid such repetitions?
Although it seems like Embalo lost the elections and feared jail or death to the level of staging a false coup to escape, we must also admit the possibility of early wrong assumptions as vice president Al-Gore did in Florida. My leaning is that he lost the elections, and I think this is where the potential learning discussions should occur. An ex-president can be rightly or wrongly jailed, so we cannot dismiss his fears, except when a coward goes to the level of lying, I will not defend the lies, even where I may claim understandable fear… Was the opposition threatening him during the campaigns? Means Ecowas protocols should include how to train opposition candidates or risk worse than what Emballo did.
The key needed new protocols or measures should include: all ex-presidents to have the privilege of leaving the country under Ecowas or AU escort, but they can still be prosecuted at an Ecowas or AU level court. This guarantees temporal personal safety, protection from persecution, and protection from dubious prosecution, but not total protection from rightful prosecution. I was not against the Supreme Court ruling in the U.S in special protection of the president, because every work should come with tolerable mistakes that won’t be prosecuted. Bring the evidence to Ecowas or AU level, a set of judges from different countries are less corruptible than a Judge in Bissau against Embalo, or a Gambian judge against Yahyah Jammeh. Some of you may get lost as to why I am mentioning Yahyah Jammeh of the Gambia. Those who know the true history of the 2016 Gambia’s election denial and the military intervention cannot blame Jammeh 100%. President Adama Barrow was partly guilty of implicit threatening of Jammeh and Ecowas+ did not learn enough from that dilemma and how many other problems? After winning, before swearing in, then President elect Barrow said: ‘The Gambia is rejoining the ICC…’ Every sane person will consider that as an implicit threat because which Gambians deserve to stand before the ICC more than Jammeh? Then the tolerable election irregularity gave Jammeh the excuse to dangerously try to hang on to power. I do not need to narrate what that cost the Gambians and beyond in this article. However, I do believe the need to choose me and other honest thinkers to deeply study all the past problems in recent Africa for a book to be titled something like: The Dangerous words and actions by leaders, including opposition leaders. Mistakes we should not repeat and the like as a title. I think working with folks like ex-president Jonathan Goodluck and others who were involved, studying the most truthful writers in every country, engaging the views of all parties, we should be able to produce an educational book for aspiring politicians or even for university students.
Some of these things may seem embarrassing, but the purpose is never to embarrass anyone. Although president Barrow prematurely uttered those dangerous words, the fact that all or many Gambian top politicians failed to call him, admonish him enough, redress the fear, etc, reveal many were guilty at the top , not just Barrow. Naive Gambians were also celebrating those comments and saying worse than that to add fear to then powerful Jammeh. Some will argue how Mr. Halifa Sallah was later trying to calm the tension by citing some positive words that cannot undo the dangerous words and how late was Halifa?
Another protocol to protect winning and potentially winning opposition leaders from the kind of arrest we see in Bissau must also be addressed. Again, to broaden the examples : Mr. Ousainou Darboe once sought refuge at the u.s embassy on election night, even though he was to be a loser, but hopeful politicians can still be cowardly . If AU or Ecowas forces were guarding Darboe or xyz and other assurances including certain charges can only be done at Ecowas or AU Court during election time or if you are an opposition leader with over five percent of the votes… The reason for such protection is not to give impunity to opposition leaders but to avoid agitating their supporters and causing avoidable unrest through a stronger compromise. Evidence is evidence, so an Ecowas or AU court convicting an opposition leader is much more damning than a country level court. Many courts could have convicted Bolsonaro of Brazil, who went far beyond what Trump did. A plot to assassinate an opponent is very different from reckless words of Trump that the guiltier heard or misinterpreted more than the deaf or questionable Democrats. If you truly heard or fear Trump was calling for ‘insurrection’, then every smart person will demand enough protection, including going with a personal weapon to work. Retrospect learning exists, but do not dishonestly overreact where you were partially guilty.
The media sometimes failed to think, including the Bissau issue. Writers like me never knew it was Emballo who announced the coup, because that should raise suspicion. All of us can be misled, but for how long? I still called it weird and stand by my suggestions, including the treaty for elections integrity and special international forces to avoid different types of chaos.
The same book I am suggesting we write can include mistakes by military leaders. Suppose Embalo is in fear and Ecowas is yet to have these protections, a smart military can still avoid such dangerous lies. The military could have still flown him out to safety, explain the fears, release the results, and swear-in the new president. Although it is relatively calm in Bissau, such blunders can cause civil unrest somewhere else and our duty includes how to educate others to avoid repeating mistakes and seeing worse things. Also some damage is already done, because the arrested opposition leader may never trust them again unless they quickly amend. The sins of lying and cruelty are not minor to God and the Godly, so do not let fear and others drive you to lie, especially at leadership levels.
As for Embalo he is another testimony that even ex-military folks can be cowards and do dis-service beyond their country. I can imagine headlines like: The ‘third term is a coup’ president falsely staged a coup before a second term or historic peaceful transfer of power? The man lost an opportunity to fear. He was bragging as the ‘first president of Bissau to seek a second term’, but he could have been the first to hand-over power to potentially regain power as Trump, Buhari, Silva of Brazil, etc. Bissau has many real coups, but he seems to be the first to stage a false coup in likely an unnecessary fear. In this age, unless there is mounting evidence, the international community would not have allowed his jailing over tolerable wrongs. Anyway, some facts must be discussed, but I am not interested in shaming Embalo, Barrow, or anyone. As a writer, I tend to put learning as the most important thing and public discussion can far outweigh what Barrow or xyz may privately admit or advice in the Gambia, but how about Ghana to Venezuela? The shame Embalo may face should be avoided for others through learning and honest learning for that matter. May God bless Showlove Trinity: let’s learn, let’s work, let’s have fun.
By Jarga Kebba Gigo
An Activist and Transformer
Author of Juts Quhr-aahn
🎓 Attend 2026 JAMB, Post-UTME, WAEC, and NECO GCE Tutorials
Get fully prepared with expert tutors, comprehensive study materials, and personalised academic guidance at Akahi Tutors.
📍 Located at 67, Oduduwa College Road, Off Sabo Junction, Ile-Ife.
📞 Call: 08038644328
for enrollment and accommodation reservation.
