Cape Verde, Benin, and Senegal Ranked Most Stable Nations in West Africa – EBDA Report
By Joseph Iyaji | Akahi News
Nigeria Shows Progress but Still in Fragility Zone
Cape Verde, Benin, and Senegal have emerged as the most stable nations in West Africa, according to the Q2 2025 Eagle Badger Stability Index (EBDA SI). At the other end of the spectrum, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Mali remain in the red zone, reflecting deep-seated challenges despite signs of improvement in Nigeria.
“The Stability Index is the canary in the mine for governments and institutions,” said Sharon Orisakwe, CEO of Eagle Badger Data Analytics (EBDA). “It is designed to warn early, when there is still time to act.”
Nigeria’s Fragility Score Improves
Although Nigeria remains among the bottom three alongside Burkina Faso and Mali, the country’s score improved by 8.3 percentage points in the past year. According to EBDA, this improvement is linked to a decline in terrorism-related incidents and growing investor confidence, underpinned by signs of macroeconomic stabilisation.
Orisakwe expressed cautious optimism:
“Nigeria is moving in the right direction, and that deserves attention. Reduced terrorist activity and greater economic stability are changing perceptions. But Nigeria is still in the red zone. That tells us the journey is far from over.”
She further noted that ongoing investments in agriculture, education, and healthcare are generating momentum, adding that if such gains are sustained, Nigeria could eventually transition from fragility to resilience.
Displacement as a Warning Signal
One of the report’s most striking findings is the strong correlation between internal displacement and future instability. EBDA’s data shows that sudden increases in internally displaced persons (IDPs) often predict worsening societal conditions within three to six months.
“Instability rarely emerges out of nowhere,” Orisakwe explained. “Displacement is one of the strongest warning signs we have. Regardless of the cause, when large numbers of people are forced to move, it almost always signals deeper pressures that will show up in the next quarter.”
Alignment with IMF Assessments
The EBDA SI findings mirror the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest Fragile and Conflict Affected States (FCS) list for FY26, which identifies Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, and Mali as the most conflict-affected states in West Africa. All four nations also appear in EBDA’s red zone.
However, Orisakwe stressed that EBDA’s index goes beyond measuring conflict:
“The IMF’s FCS list is invaluable, but it is really a conflict lens. What we have built is a stability lens. We track 15 indicators across four dimensions — terrorism, displacement, inflation, unemployment, corruption, political freedom, and even natural disasters. It is a wide-angle view of stability.”
She added that conflict is often the final symptom, whereas the EBDA SI is designed to catch early warning signs such as literacy gaps, unemployment spikes, protests, or environmental shocks that may tip a country into instability.
From Data to Action
According to Orisakwe, the EBDA SI is more than just a diagnostic tool:
“What we’ve created is a robust compass for action across the sub-region. Governments can use it for planning, investors for risk assessment, and NGOs for humanitarian response. The real value is in moving from reaction to anticipation.”
She concluded with a call to action:
“In a volatile environment like West Africa, foresight is survival. The Stability Index helps turn uncertainty into intelligence. That can be the difference between fragility and resilience.”
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