2027: Tinubu Targets Nine States He Lost in 2023, to Lead APC Campaign in Three Others

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is set to personally lead the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential campaign in 12 states ahead of the 2027 general election, with nine of the selected states being territories he lost during the 2023 presidential poll.

The campaign plan places renewed emphasis on states where opposition candidates defeated Tinubu four years earlier, suggesting that the ruling party intends to strengthen its support base, recover lost electoral ground and consolidate its position ahead of the next presidential election.

According to the campaign timetable released by the APC, the President is expected to lead rallies in Kaduna, Rivers, Plateau, Oyo, Borno, Enugu, Bauchi, Sokoto, Delta, Kano, Adamawa and Lagos.

Tinubu won only three of these states — Rivers, Oyo and Borno — during the 2023 presidential election, while the remaining nine were won by opposition candidates.

The development comes as political parties intensify preparations for the 2027 election, with competing camps seeking to build alliances, mobilise supporters and expand their electoral influence nationwide.

Why Tinubu Is Targeting Nine States

The selection of the 12 states has attracted attention because of their significance in the previous presidential election.

In 2023, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar defeated Tinubu in Kaduna, Bauchi, Sokoto and Adamawa. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate at the time, won Plateau, Enugu, Delta and Lagos, while Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso secured victory in Kano under the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

The results suggest that the APC faces different electoral challenges across the selected states, ranging from established opposition strongholds to areas where Tinubu’s previous defeats were relatively narrow.

By personally attending campaign rallies in these locations, the President could seek to strengthen the party’s grassroots mobilisation, appeal directly to voters and improve the APC’s performance in the next election.

However, the campaign schedule alone does not establish the President’s private calculations or guarantee that the party will regain the affected states.

Kaduna to Host Campaign Flag-Off

Kaduna State is scheduled to host the official flag-off of the APC presidential campaign on October 24, 2026.

The state is politically important because Atiku defeated Tinubu there during the 2023 election despite the APC controlling the state government at the time.

Atiku secured 554,360 votes against Tinubu’s 399,293 votes in Kaduna, highlighting the challenge facing the ruling party as it seeks to improve its performance in the North-West.

The state will therefore be an important test of the APC’s ability to convert its political organisation and control of government into stronger electoral support.

The outcome may also depend on the influence of local political leaders, the effectiveness of party mobilisation and voters’ assessment of the Federal Government’s performance.

Kano Presents a Major Electoral Challenge

Kano is another significant destination on Tinubu’s campaign itinerary.

During the 2023 presidential election, Kwankwaso won the state with 997,279 votes, while Tinubu received 517,341 votes.

The result demonstrated the strength of Kwankwaso’s political movement and the influence of local political loyalties in determining electoral outcomes.

Kano’s importance extends beyond its population and electoral significance. Its political landscape has continued to evolve ahead of the 2027 election, with changing alliances and the emergence of new political alignments potentially influencing the contest.

For the APC, the challenge will be to persuade voters who supported Kwankwaso or other opposition candidates in 2023 to reconsider their choices.

The President’s planned appearance in the state may provide an opportunity for direct engagement, but electoral success will ultimately depend on voters’ preferences and the strength of competing campaigns.

Atiku’s Home State Also on Tinubu’s Itinerary

Tinubu is also expected to campaign in Adamawa State, the home state of Atiku Abubakar, one of his principal challengers in the 2023 presidential election.

Atiku polled 417,611 votes in Adamawa in 2023, compared with Tinubu’s 182,881 votes.

The difference reflected the former Vice-President’s political influence in the state and the difficulty the APC could face in attempting to expand its support.

A presidential campaign rally in Adamawa would give Tinubu an opportunity to make a direct appeal to voters in a state where the opposition previously enjoyed a considerable advantage.

Bauchi and Sokoto, where Atiku also defeated Tinubu, are similarly included in the President’s proposed campaign schedule.

The APC will need to address local political dynamics and demonstrate why voters should support its candidate again, particularly as opposition parties work to strengthen their own structures.

Tinubu’s Planned Campaign in the South-East and South-South

The President’s itinerary also includes Enugu, Plateau and Delta, states where Peter Obi recorded victories in 2023.

Enugu was particularly difficult territory for Tinubu during the previous election. Obi secured 428,640 votes in the state, compared with Tinubu’s 4,772 votes.

The result demonstrated the scale of the APC’s electoral challenge in Enugu and the strength of support for Obi at the time.

In Delta, Obi also defeated Tinubu, reflecting the former Labour Party candidate’s considerable appeal in parts of the South-South.

The President’s planned visits to these states could form part of a wider effort to broaden the APC’s appeal beyond its established strongholds.

Nevertheless, the extent to which the party can improve its performance will depend on several factors, including candidate appeal, local political alliances, campaign organisation and the issues voters consider most important.

Lagos Remains Symbolically Important

Perhaps the most politically significant destination on the itinerary is Lagos State, where Tinubu’s long-standing political influence did not prevent him from losing to Obi in the 2023 presidential election.

Obi polled 582,454 votes in Lagos, narrowly defeating Tinubu, who received 572,606 votes.

The margin of 9,848 votes made the result one of the notable developments of the 2023 presidential contest.

Lagos has played a central role in Tinubu’s political career, making the previous defeat particularly significant for the APC.

The President is scheduled to lead the campaign’s closing rally in Lagos on January 9, 2027.

The choice of Lagos for the grand finale could provide the ruling party with an opportunity to demonstrate its organisational strength and seek to reclaim a state that remains central to Tinubu’s political history.

However, the 2023 outcome also serves as a reminder that established political influence does not necessarily translate into victory at the ballot box.

Why Tinubu Will Also Campaign in Rivers, Oyo and Borno

Although nine of the selected states were won by opposition candidates in 2023, the President’s itinerary also includes Rivers, Oyo and Borno, where he secured victories.

Their inclusion suggests that the APC’s strategy involves not only recovering lost territory but also consolidating existing support.

Rivers remains politically significant because of the influence of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, and the state’s evolving political relationships.

Oyo could also be an important battleground amid the political activities and reported presidential ambitions of Governor Seyi Makinde.

Borno, meanwhile, remains an important APC stronghold and the political base of Vice-President Kashim Shettima.

The President’s proposed appearances in these states could help the party reinforce its relationships with local political leaders and maintain support ahead of the election.

APC Releases Nationwide Campaign Timetable

The APC’s campaign schedule covers all 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, with the President expected to personally lead rallies in 12 states.

Other campaign activities will involve party leaders, governors, ministers, members of the Presidential Campaign Council and other political figures.

Tinubu had indicated during the inauguration of the APC Presidential Campaign Council that he would not attend every campaign rally because he did not want electioneering activities to interfere with governance.

The timetable therefore distributes campaign activities across the party’s national political structure while reserving selected appearances for the President.

The APC is also expected to intensify grassroots mobilisation, with party leaders directed to strengthen support among different sections of the electorate, including women.

The campaign is expected to run from October 2026 into January 2027, with the Lagos rally scheduled as the closing event on January 9.

Opposition Criticises Tinubu’s Campaign Approach

The campaign plan has also generated criticism from opposition political figures, who have questioned the President’s decision not to personally attend every rally.

Atiku Abubakar’s camp has argued that the President should use the campaign period to explain his administration’s record and respond directly to Nigerians’ concerns about economic hardship, food prices, employment and living costs.

The Makinde/Daura Presidential Campaign Organisation has also criticised the approach, arguing that the President should be prepared to face the electorate across the country.

These statements represent the opposition’s political position and should be distinguished from independently established facts about the campaign strategy.

The APC, on its part, has indicated that Tinubu’s responsibilities as President must be balanced with the demands of electioneering.

The disagreement highlights a wider political question ahead of the 2027 election: how an incumbent President should balance the demands of governing the country with the need to campaign for another term.

What the 12-State Strategy Could Mean for 2027

The decision to focus the President’s personal campaign appearances on 12 states provides an early indication of the geographical priorities of the APC’s re-election effort.

Nine of the selected states were won by opposition candidates in 2023, making electoral recovery an obvious potential objective of the strategy.

At the same time, the inclusion of three states previously won by Tinubu suggests that the party also considers the consolidation of existing support important.

However, the political environment has changed since the last presidential election. Party affiliations, political alliances, candidates and voter priorities may differ by the time Nigerians return to the polls.

The economic situation, public perceptions of the Federal Government, opposition unity, the performance of state governments and the effectiveness of grassroots campaigns could all influence the final outcome.

Consequently, the 2023 results provide useful context for understanding the campaign timetable, but they cannot independently predict how the 2027 election will unfold.

President Bola Tinubu’s decision to personally lead the APC campaign in 12 states has placed nine states he lost in 2023 at the centre of the ruling party’s re-election preparations.

From Kaduna and Kano in the North to Enugu, Delta and Lagos in the South, the proposed rallies will test the APC’s ability to expand its support and challenge opposition victories from the previous presidential election.

The inclusion of Rivers, Oyo and Borno also underscores the importance of maintaining established political support while pursuing gains elsewhere.

As the 2027 election approaches, the central question will be whether the APC can turn its campaign strategy into wider voter support and whether opposition parties can defend or expand their previous electoral gains.

Ultimately, the decision will rest with Nigerian voters at the ballot box.

Akahi News will continue to provide balanced reports and analysis of developments ahead of the 2027 general election.